Scenario Planning To Forecast Future Energy In Malaysia

Nowadays, we face the problem regarding the depletion of oil and gas but at the same time, final
energy consumption grew at a fast rate of 5.6 percent between 2000 and 2005 to reach 38.9 Mtoe
in 2005. A substantial portion of the energy consumed was from oil (63 percent) which was
mainly utilized in the transport and industrial sectors. Natural gas consumption also increased in
a rapid manner to fuel electricity demand. The share of natural gas in total installed electricity
generation capacity remains high at 70 percent in 2005, but has fallen slightly from 77 percent in
2000.
Malaysia is endowed with conventional energy resources such as oil and gas as well as
renewable like hydro, biomass and solar energy. At 2005 production levels, proven oil reserves
are expected to last another 19 years while natural gas reserves are expected to last for about 33
years. Taking into account the growing energy consumption and domestic energy supply
constraints, Malaysia has set sustainable development and diversification of energy sources, as
the economy's main energy policy goals. The Five-Fuel Strategy recognises renewable energy
resources as the economy's fifth fuel after oil, coal, natural gas and hydro. The introduction of
biodiesel for the transport sector in 2005 is one of the positive steps that the government has
undertaken to achieve sustainable energy development through diversification of fuel sources.
We need to do something to overcome the problem of depletion of oil and gas that affect the
energy supply in the future. One of the way is by doing the scenario planning. There are lots of
method that can be used to create scenario planning. Two of them are Business As Usual (BAU)
and Green Future (OF). In this project, I will used this two method for energy scenario planning
in Malaysia.