AN APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC FOR A SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECAST OF MALAYSIA LOAD DEMAND

This project basically analyzes the hourly load profile in Malaysia. Studies on load
pattern and trending apart the affecting factors on the electrical load demand have
been performed, and application of fuzzy logic that being used from fuzzytech
software to forecast the electrical load demand for 1 hour ahead and 19 hours ahead.
Chapter 1 basically describes some introduction of this project. Set of objectives is
stated in order to ensure the project is done within the scope and time frame. The
current situation is outlined as the problem statement which leads to relevancy apart
its application in the practical world.
In order to ensure high quality of work being performed, some continuous research
should be done. Apart of that, continuous study on load profile analysis and
economical power analysis help much in this project. Basic knowledge of fuzzy logic
in fuzzytech software also is one of the requirements while doing this project. Due to
this condition, some of elementary information in doing this project being outlined in
chapter 2 of this report. Meanwhile Chapter 3 describes the approach thathasbe done
while doing this project. Some methods of designation of the system and outcome of
the load profile studies is explained in this chapter.
As the project performed, the results and the outcomes of the system is presented in
chapter 4. Apart of the result, some analysis such as error calculation and result
analysis is shown here. Chapter 5 basically presents the importance and findings from
this project. Some short summary of the project being outlined and some conclusion
of the project. In Chapter 6, some recommendation to improve the project is
discussed.
Digesting the report as a whole, it is basically explained the 19 hours and 17 hours
load forecasting system that using fuzzy logic technique in fuzzytech software as an
approach. With accuracy ofthe system around 97% - 98%, the system is reliable to be
applied in practical world. Apart of that, this report also describes the capability ofthe
system to forecast electrical loaddemand for 1monthahead.