DEVELOPMENT OF SPA TIOTEMPORAL ARIMA MODEL OF WAVE CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA OF MALAYSIAN WATER

Due to the high demand for maritime activities in the South China Sea, an accurate
and robust statistical model of the wave condition is required. As such, this research
aims to develop a spatio-temporal ARIMA model of the wave conditions in the said
region. In addition to that, the statistical properties of the significant wave height time
series in this region is studied and characterised. A baseline ARIMA model was
proposed despite the effects of seasonal variations on the wave conditions. Hourly
significant wave height data from six locations are tested. Four segments of data are
selected from each time series. This is to remove the plausible effects of the El Nifio
and La Nifia cycle to the time series. Wave time series are nonstationary by nature.