System Reliability of an Existing Jacket Platform (Failure Paths and System Reliability Index)

The objective of the project is to determine the reliability of an existing jacket platform in Malaysia. This can be achieved by determining the system probability of failures as well as the accompanied system reliability index. Those two parameters are important indicators for assessing the integrity and reliability of the platform, and will point out whether the platform is strong enough for continued and prolonged operation. A lot of studies in the past have been focusing on component reliability which does not necessarily indicate the robustness of the platform as a whole. Thus, this project assess the whole system reliability by determining possible failure paths of the structure, the system probability of failures and its related system reliability index. In order to do that, first, the probability of failure of each component needs to be determined. From that, the probability of failure of each failure path and the probability of failure of the system can be calculated using the bounding formulae (Simple Bound). For component reliability, response surface method will be used to determine the global response as well as the local response of the structure. Those surfaces will be the input for the limit state functions. The probability of failure of each component can then be determined from the function using FORM method. Pushover analysis and the bounding formulae will used to determine most probable failure paths, the system probability of failures and corresponding reliability index. From the study, three probable failure paths have been determined, and it is found that the system reliability index of the structure is with corresponding failure probability, =1.36E-20 . With this, it can be assumed that the platform is robust and the probability of the collapse is very small.