Landslide Prediction and Time Dependent Slope Safety Factor

Landslide is a natural disaster which may influences by climate change such as rainfall. Most of the landslide events occur during rainstorm. The rainfall infiltration may promote the movement of soil at the slip surface and cause decrease slope stability factor as time dependent. Likewise, the rainfall intensity and soil permeability have significant effect in decrease the slope safety factor as time dependent. This research aims to modify existing development of landslide prediction model. Besides that, the effect of the rainfall intensity and soil permeability or soil type were investigated by using this model. In addition, this research also aims to obtain minimum slope stability and occurrences of landslides based on this analysis. The modified landslide prediction model consists of one dimensional Green Ampt infiltrations analysis and circular slope failure of finite slope using slice methods. For this research, three different of soil permeability or soil type were analyzed under low and high rainfall intensity. Overall, slope stability decreases as time increases. The result indicates the soil permeability are significantly affected the slope stability factor as time dependent. The soils which have high permeability which is sand are unstable as time dependent for both low and high rainfall intensity. As a comparison, the low permeability soil, which is clay are stable as time dependent. Under high rainfall intensity, the slopes fail a few hours after the rainfall starts. While low amount rainfall intensity shows that the longer time and intense rainfall need in order for a slope to fail.Landslide is a natural disaster which may influences by climate change such as rainfall. Most of the landslide events occur during rainstorm. The rainfall infiltration may promote the movement of soil at the slip surface and cause decrease slope stability factor as time dependent. Likewise, the rainfall intensity and soil permeability have significant effect in decrease the slope safety factor as time dependent. This research aims to modify existing development of landslide prediction model. Besides that, the effect of the rainfall intensity and soil permeability or soil type were investigated by using this model. In addition, this research also aims to obtain minimum slope stability and occurrences of landslides based on this analysis. The modified landslide prediction model consists of one dimensional Green Ampt infiltrations analysis and circular slope failure of finite slope using slice methods. For this research, three different of soil permeability or soil type were analyzed under low and high rainfall intensity. Overall, slope stability decreases as time increases. The result indicates the soil permeability are significantly affected the slope stability factor as time dependent. The soils which have high permeability which is sand are unstable as time dependent for both low and high rainfall intensity. As a comparison, the low permeability soil, which is clay are stable as time dependent. Under high rainfall intensity, the slopes fail a few hours after the rainfall starts. While low amount rainfall intensity shows that the longer time and intense rainfall need in order for a slope to fail.