Prediction of Suspended Sediment in Batang Padang River using Probabilistic Analysis

Suspended sediment prediction is among the most important aspect when it
comes to design and operate hydraulic structures and as planning for conservative
measures relating to water resources problems. In this study, five probabilistic
analysis models are developed using the suspended sediment data of Sg. Batang
Padang which are Normal Distribution Method, Log-Normal Distribution Method, Gumbel’s Distribution, Pearson Type 3 Distribution Method and Log-Pearson Type
3 Distribution Method. The suspended sediment data from hydrological station Sg.
Batang Padang, Perak from year 1987 to 1996 are used in this study. All parameters
required to complete the prediction equation and graph plotting are being done by
using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and also EasyFit software. The best fit model is
determined by using Chi-Squared test and R-Squared test in this study. The result
shows that Log-Pearson Type 3 is identified as the best fitted distribution compared
to others in both test with the highest percentage of 97.5% in R-square test and
29.653 in Chi-square test. The equation developed from this study can be used to
predict suspended sediment in Sg. Batang Padang for conservative measures or any
hydrological design purposes.