Dynamic Failure Assessment Using Bayesian Methodology

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) that had been used in the industry before is
known to be static and a dynamic risk assessment is form using real time data and
Bayesian theorem where the assessment is updated with near misses or accident that had
occurred. Research has proven that dynamic approach in risk assessment can predict the
incident that occurred in BP Texas refinery. Steps in conducting the dynamic risk
assessment are scenario identification, prior function calculation, formation of the
likelihood function and posterior function calculation. A calculation tool using Visual
Basic (VB) software is develop base on the function and is validated with published
data. Result shows that it is possible to develop a tool for this assessment using coding
by VBA software. Dynamic failure assessment also manages to prove that risk of failure
of component also increasing over time.