Probability Assessment Tool Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

Even though that process safety is vital to ensure the smoothness of the plant
operation, Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) also have a significant effect in
the plant operation, as well as in any industries. There are numbers of tragic
incidents have been investigated and based on the investigations, it is believed that
most tragic accidents were caused by human; or HOF to be general. Thus, suitable
tools should be developed to determine which HOF is the major contributor. Then,
with the outcomes, appropriate preventivemeasures can be developed.
The classical method in predicting which HOF is the major contributor is solely
based on judgment from an expert or group ofexpertise. The judgments provided are
completely in qualitative form, which may vary between one expert to another. To
address this problem, the qualitative judgments are transformed into quantitative
form by applying Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) into the judgment
procedure. Based on this method, it is proven that in most cases, HOF can be
reduced significantly like in risk assessment of oil and gas offshore wells, hazardous
vapor accidents, shipping accidents, and last but not least in railway risk analysis.
For this project, a FAHPtool for HOF is developed to assist users to obtain weights
of criterion for each subjectivejudgment that is defined by the users. A case study of
planning and design tender selection in public office buildings is selected for the tool
validation. The tool has been successfully validated using the case study data where
it managed to locate Best Nonfuzzy Performance (BNP) value for each subjective
judgments defined.