GAS DISTRICT COOLING LOAD DEMAND MODELLING

Gas District Cooling (GDC) is a co-generation plant that owned by Universiti
Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP). The plant supplies electricity and chilled water to the
UTP campus. At present, there is no mathematical model available for GDC
application. As a sole customer of the plant, the UTP 2011 load demand data is used
to develop the load demand modelling using exponential smoothing methods. The
methods produce a few mathematical models that replicate UTP 2011 load demand
pattern. The result obtain in the analysis would address the variation of electricity
demand in the university which is beneficial for the utility company and for
forecasting purpose. Winter’s method is selected to characterize the mathematical
load demand modelling for UTP since it produced the lowest MAPE as compared to
Simple, Holt’s Fit and Holt-Winters of exponential smoothing methods.