GEOMECHANICS RELIABILITY MODELING FOR DE-RISKING

One of the most common geomechanics problems is reservoir compaction and its
associated land surface subsidence. This problem is complex and the atrected
geomechanics parameters vary across the underground formation- Subsidence cuurcs
major environmental concerns, leading to risk of flooding in land operations or pladorm
safety in offshore production. The same problon in hydrocarbon production and
underground water rernoval has significant impact to both the exploitation sche,me and
the surface environments. Previous researches focused on examining the displacement of
the subsided area and its stress field by assuming the geomechanics properties of the
reservoir and its surrounding to be homoge,lreous. Howev€r, geomechanical medium is
typically corrplor urd inhomogeneorui. Smre other reserches assume variatim of one
parameter to be independent of the rest of other parameters. This confines the
investigation by looking at specific geomechanics parameters in certain region oly.
Consequently, the parameters cannot be de-risked in a holistic mann€r with 6ese
assumptions. This project intends to propose a geomechanical de-risking worldow that
utilizes components such experimental design, tornado chart, Multi-Variate Regression
(MVR), and First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The Geomechanics tool will be
treated as 'black box' engine that generate desired resporuies.
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